Blue Line

Situational Awareness & Predictive Analysis

November 14, 2016  By Royce Demelo

Situational Awareness & Predictive Analysis
By Royce de Melo, Tactical Intelligence International
Originally published in the London Metropolitan Police’s National Policing Data Communications Group, Futures Group Technology Bulletin (UK), 8th Edition March, 2016.

The human condition is hardwired to communicate and to read other humans through body language, gestures, the eyes, facial expression, while our biology is very adept at sensing danger in our surroundings; yet these facets of our being have been inhibited and are limited for most of us for a variety of reasons. Our inherent danger detection skills have been influenced, or even hampered, by culture and social dictates, lack of understanding of other cultures and societies, history, psychology, personal experiences and/or lack thereof. Needless to say that for the individual working in law enforcement, investigations, security, close protection, intelligence, the military, a soldier on the street, the bouncer at a bar, a teacher in a high school, the guard at a train station, awareness of physical surroundings and the people around you, is an imperative, though often untapped skill. Understanding and reading the signs, detecting anomalies, and predicting a threat, is key to minimizing danger, eliminating the threat of personal attack, avoiding an ambush in a conflict zone, or preventing a terrorist attack. Though some of these vital and basic abilities are innate to all humans, many of the skills must be learned, or enhanced through a comprehensive process which allows individuals to tap into their hunter instinct.

Tactical Intelligence International’s Situational Awareness & Predictive Analysis (SAPA) course provides students with the ability to recognize, respond to, and mitigate any personal and general threat. It is a system that can be implemented in a multitude of ways and scenarios encountered by everyday citizens, law enforcement officers, and soldiers on the frontlines. This training accomplishes its goal by utilizing Predictive Analysis techniques based on the scientific domains of Human Behavior Pattern Analysis, including heuristic methods and algorithms, buttressed by cross cultural, political, and ideological knowledge (e.g. iconography). SAPA provides advanced Interview and Deception Detection techniques, which allows a person to quickly determine if an individual, such as an employee or suspect, is attempting to deceive. The training helps law enforcement, intelligence, military, security professionals, investigators, and civilians, become more proactive in identifying and mitigating serious potential security threats be it personal and/or general (e.g. terrorism). SAPA training is applicable to virtually any environment.

In the mid-2000s the US military became acutely aware in Iraq that situational awareness and predictive analytical competencies were lacking with troops in the frontlines—largely a product of a generation of youth who were of a stay-at-home-on-the-computer-culture, lacking what is often referred to as “street smarts.” This led to the formulation of the Combat Hunter program, which was adopted by the US Marine Corps, and later the US Army. The program demonstrated immediate quantifiable success in the field. Units who had received the training endured fewer ambushes and fewer casualties, and the reason was obvious. Troops had become more aware of their environment, and of the people around them. They could better read the danger signs before an event, and detect anomalies. Another outcome of the training, and its various practical and multifaceted levels of implementation, for a platoon to the individual trooper, was the negative effects this had on the enemy. Concepts from the Combat Hunter program have been applied to Situational Awareness and Predictive Analysis training, which has been provided to numerous military and law enforcement agencies worldwide.


Learning Objectives of the Situational Awareness & Predictive Analysis:

· Basic terminology
· The Six Domains of Predictive Profiling
· Threat vs. Suspicion vs. Risk
· Detection of suspicious activity
· Recognizing Aggressive Intentions
· Addressing a suspicious object or person
· How to articulate and document suspicious activity and persons
· How to properly document reports which can be used in courts
· How to detect when a person or employee is attempting to be deceptive
· Increased understanding of every day environments
· Increased awareness and observation skills
· Increased awareness of potential threats and risks
· The ability to identify and manage potential or actual threats

Tactical Intelligence’s prime instructor for this training is Harry J. Evans who was one of the original Combat Hunter program developers. Many American instructors today were taught by Evans. He is the primary instructor for the US Department of Defense (DoD), DoD Ministry of Defense Advisors (MoDA), Civilian Expeditionary Workforce (CEW), and the DoD Educational Activity (DoDEA) programs. He has also instructed the Republic of Georgia Army. And through Tactical Intelligence, he has also taught in Canada to Toronto’s Peel Regional Police, where for the first time the course was also offered to civilians, to Canadian analysts, private security, and military specialists.

Evans is a retired USMC Master Sgt., holds an MS in Criminal Justice and has decades of experience in domestic and international law enforcement, in addition to his current assignment as the Lead Profiling SME Instructor for the Marine Corps Combat Hunter Program at the Marine Corps Schools of Infantry at Camp Lejeune, NC and Camp Pendleton, CA. As a Law Enforcement Professional (LEP), Evans has worked with Afghan National Police and Afghan Government officials as a Battalion LEP and as the Investigative and Surveillance Unit (ISU) LEP in Afghanistan, a clandestine law enforcement unit comprised of Evans and local Afghans. In those roles, Evans investigated fraud/corruption/criminal acts committed by Afghan National Police and other Afghan Government Officials, prepared cases for prosecution by the Afghan Ministry of Interior, and was Chief Instructor/Academy Chief for the Nawa Province Afghan Local Police Academy. Additionally, Evans investigated insurgent/terrorist cells, provided security risk analysis, instructed and accompanied US Marines during collection and processing of physical evidence, and provided training in criminal investigation to the Afghan National Police and the Afghan Border Police.

The Situational Awareness & Predictive Analysis training program can be customized to meet an organization’s specific needs, mission, and resources.

Royce de Melo is Tactical Intelligence International’s Canadian and International Representative. He is a security and defence consultant, and analyst, with comprehensive experience working with a variety of entities, companies, and governments, specializing in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa. Mr. de Melo has lived and worked throughout the Middle East for over 20 years.

Royce Demelo is Tactical Intelligence International’s Canadian and International Representative. He can be reached at

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